A source told The Verge's Tom Warren that E-Day is past 400,000 copies sold across Xbox and Steam. That's a big jump from the 230,000 first-week estimate, and it doesn't even count the Game Pass players. Here's the full picture on sales, the $500 million budget talk, and what nobody's saying.
Gears of War: E-Day is moving more copies than the doom posts want you to think. According to The Verge’s Tom Warren, in today’s issue of his Notepad newsletter, “One source tells me that more than 400,000 copies of the game have been sold across Xbox and Steam.”
Warren is one of the most plugged-in Microsoft reporters out there, and in the same issue he broke Dan Greenawalt’s retirement and the Elder Scrolls VI: Sentinel name. Microsoft hasn’t shared official sales or player numbers for E-Day, so treat the 400K figure as unconfirmed until Xbox says something.
it's a bumper Notepad 📒 issue today with some scoops. I cover Microsoft's exit offer, Xbox’s architect of Forza Motorsport retiring, and exclusive details about Elders Scrolls VI. All live for subscribers now 👇 https://t.co/3wea2JacXK
, Tom Warren (@tomwarren) October 29, 2026
What you need to know
- The new number: more than 400,000 copies sold across Xbox and Steam, per one source speaking to Tom Warren (The Verge, Notepad, Oct 29).
- What it doesn’t count: Game Pass players. E-Day is on Game Pass, so everyone playing through their subscription is on top of that 400K.
- The earlier estimate: Alinea Analytics estimated 230,000 copies in the first week and $37 million in revenue, per Kotaku. Kotaku noted “a big chunk” of that came from Game Pass members paying $30 for the Premium Edition Upgrade to get early access.
- Steam alone: Alinea estimated fewer than 100,000 copies on Steam as of Kotaku’s Oct 22 report.
- Reach: GameSpot reported that E-Day “reached nearly 2 million people out of the gate,” and said that number “is sure to grow over time.”
- Official word: none yet. Kotaku pointed out Microsoft hasn’t released performance numbers for E-Day, unlike Gears 5 in 2019, which Xbox said brought in over 3 million players at launch.
- The game: E-Day launched October 6, 2026 on Xbox Series X|S and PC, with Game Pass. It’s at an 87 on Metacritic, the highest score for the series since the original Xbox 360 trilogy, per Kotaku.
The $500 million question
The sales talk is all tied to E-Day’s budget. On October 22, Kotaku reported that one source familiar with Xbox’s business said E-Day cost “over $500 million” to make, and that’s before marketing. GameSpot said Chris Dring of The Game Business reported the same $500 million figure that day. Microsoft did not respond to Kotaku’s request for comment.
It’s not settled what that number covers: – Tom Henderson (Insider Gaming) said back in June that the cost to ship E-Day was “insane” and over $400 million, per Kotaku. – Jez Corden (Windows Central) pushed back in June, saying the budget was lower and that The Coalition’s costs are hard to pin on one game because the studio supports other Xbox teams, per Kotaku. – After the Oct 22 reports, Corden said the $500 million figure is not wrong, but his sources couldn’t say for sure whether it’s the game’s budget alone or the budget plus the cost of running The Coalition, per GameSpot.
Warren’s own summary today: E-Day “faces some tough questions around how much it costs to create a AAA game these days and what success looks like,” and “the big question is whether Microsoft was happy with its Game Pass numbers for E-Day.”
Why Xbox might be fine with it
Kotaku’s source said E-Day was unlikely to earn back its cost no matter where it launched, but that as a console exclusive it “could contribute to rebuilding user activity on Xbox in key areas.” Kotaku’s Ethan Gach laid out the upside: a big fall exclusive can “build buzz, give some players who haven’t turned on their old Xbox Series X/S in a while a reason to come back,” and push overall engagement up during the holiday rush.
Xbox has told players to “expect signature exclusives from us every year,” per Kotaku, and Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has said bringing back exclusives is one of her goals, per GameSpot.
400K sold, millions on Game Pass. Stop grading an Xbox exclusive with a calculator from 2012.
OnPoint 4 Gamers
OnPoint’s take: Here’s what people aren’t seeing. That 230K number everybody dunked on was a first-week estimate, and now a source is telling Tom Warren it’s past 400K, nearly double, three weeks in, for a game that’s sitting on Game Pass day one. Every Game Pass player is a sale that never shows up in these charts, and GameSpot already had E-Day reaching nearly 2 million people out of the gate. Judging an Xbox exclusive by box sales alone is grading it with the wrong calculator. Is $500 million a lot? Absolutely, and Microsoft should be smart about budgets. But E-Day did the job an exclusive is supposed to do: it got Xbox owners turning their consoles back on, it’s the best-reviewed Gears in years (read our E-Day review), and it gave The Coalition a foundation to build on. That’s a W for Xbox. Now show us the official numbers, Xbox, and shut the noise down.
Sources
- The Verge, Tom Warren, Notepad (Oct 29, 2026): www.theverge.com/tech/1022023/microsoft-exit-offer-layoffs-notepad
- Tom Warren on X, Notepad issue: x.com/tomwarren/status/2115836291875262885
- Kotaku, Ethan Gach, E-Day budget and sales estimates (Oct 22, 2026): kotaku.com/the-case-for-exclusivity-when-gears-of-war-e-day-cost-over-500-million-to-make-2000747986
- GameSpot, Eddie Makuch, E-Day budget reports and reaction (Oct 22, 2026): www.gamespot.com/articles/gears-of-war-e-day-cost-half-a-billion-to-make-apparently
- Metacritic, Gears of War: E-Day: www.metacritic.com/game/gears-of-war-e-day
Image: Xbox Game Studios / The Coalition / OnPoint 4 Gamers
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