New Xbox player estimates from TrueAchievements put Call of Duty's latest debut behind three Xbox first-party launches from this year, and about 32% behind Black Ops 7.
Call of Duty is still a monster on Xbox. But this year it isn’t the biggest launch on the platform, and it’s not especially close.
TrueAchievements estimates that Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4, which officially launched October 23, drew at least 17.3% fewer Xbox players in its debut week than Halo: Campaign Evolved, 23.9% fewer than Gears of War: E-Day and 48.8% fewer than Forza Horizon 6. Its analysis also puts MW4’s Xbox debut about 32% below last year’s Black Ops 7.
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Those numbers come with real caveats, and TrueAchievements spells them out:
- They’re estimates. Activision rolls Modern Warfare 4, Black Ops 7 and Warzone into one “Call of Duty” listing, so nobody outside Activision has an exact MW4-only count. TrueAchievements figures MW4 is at least 47.92% of that combined number.
- Best case is still behind. Even counting Black Ops 7 and Warzone players toward MW4, TrueAchievements says it would still trail all three Xbox launches.
- It’s still huge. By the site’s most brutal estimate, MW4 drew 84.8% more Xbox players at launch than EA Sports FC 27.
- The Black Ops 7 comparison is shaky. The two years mix different older Call of Duty games into the count, and TrueAchievements itself calls that comparison “a little meaningless.”
PC tells a similar story. Windows Central points to SteamDB showing a peak of around 215,000 concurrent players for Call of Duty HQ, which also covers Warzone and DMZ. That’s roughly 30% below the 306,460 peak Black Ops 6 hit on Steam during its October 2024 launch weekend. Player counts aren’t sales, though. Windows Central notes MW4 was Steam’s number one best seller at launch, and Activision hasn’t shared sales figures.
OnPoint’s take: Look at who beat Call of Duty on Xbox this year: Halo, Gears and Forza. That’s a gigantic W for Xbox’s own studios. For years people said Xbox had no games, and now its first-party launches are out-drawing the biggest franchise in the business on its own platform. And notice what Black Ops 7, Halo, Gears and Forza all had in common: they launched day one on Game Pass. That’s the clearest proof yet of what Game Pass does for a launch. MW4 is still selling and still putting up massive numbers, so nobody should be calling Call of Duty dead. But if you’re an Xbox fan, the headline here is that Xbox’s own heavy hitters are the main event now. What a time to be an Xbox fan. Let me know in the comments where you’re playing MW4, or if you’re sticking with Halo and Gears.
Sources
- TrueAchievements: Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4’s Xbox debut trails behind Forza, Gears, and Halo (Oct 26, 2026)
- Windows Central: Modern Warfare 4 player counts on Xbox and Steam (Oct 27, 2026)
Image: Activision / OnPoint 4 Gamers
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